In 2013, David
Graeber tried to analyse the attitudes of global elites towards the
social movements bubbling up beneath them. The first principle was: “under no
conditions can alternatives, or anyone proposing alternatives, be seen to
experience success,”
It might seem strange to imagine that the social
democratic policies of Jeremy Corbyn provoke such fear and loathing, or
even that they constitute an ‘alternative’, but I think they do inspire a form
of dread. We all know about his terrible
approval ratings but level of vituperation directed at Corbyn from journalists
and centrist politicians betrays something else. Such people find his policies
– reversing swingeing tax cuts for corporations and the top 5% (partial
recompense for the financial asset boosting free lunch known as Quantitative
Easing), re-nationalising the railways and not
selling arms to repressive regimes –
deeply threatening.
In their eyes, not only must Corbyn not ‘experience success’,
he must be seen to fail catastrophically. He – and everything he has come
to represent – must crash and burn, so British politics can return to the
comfort zone of one centrist neoliberal arguing with a more right-wing
neoliberal about how they manage economic decline.
So we must see that he doesn’t.
This is not about Labour winning the General Election. They
are almost certain to lose. Opinion polls can be wrong but not that wrong. The one thing that has
palpably changed from two years ago is that UKIP voters have migrated to the
Tories. Prising that coalition apart in this election, in which Brexit is the
dominant issue, is a herculean task.
However, how Labour loses is of vital importance. The party
must be able to demonstrate that it is tapping into the enormous discontent and
exasperation about the way this country is set up and the direction it is
headed. As many have noticed, in polls, Labour is ahead, substantially
ahead in fact, of the Tories among the
under 40s. These non-middle aged people are feeling the brunt of what is
happening in British society – wages
falling by over 10% in a decade, unaffordable house prices and the travails
of private renting, and a benefits system that represents a punishment, not a
welfare, state. Older people, by contrast, are by and large insulated.
They often own property and live on generous private pensions which have
vanished for people coming after them, and don’t have to work for a living.
However, they are much more likely to vote, and the propensity to vote is behind
the Conservatives’ huge opinion poll leads.
This would seem to be an intractable problem for the Labour party
in the absence of a fresh financial crisis that fundamentally changes the rule
of the game. As things stand, all it can do it try to eat in to Tories’ older
coalition and launch the mother of all campaigns to get (relatively) younger
people to register to vote
and actually do so.
Beyond that it can lay claim to the support of the legions
of self-employed people and small businesses as opposed to big business.
Loyalty to corporations above all else, which miraculously survived the
financial crash, was one of the grievous faults of the last Labour government.
Policies such as binding
arbitration for late payments and the
right for workers to buy firms that are sold or floated on the stock
exchange need to be brought centre stage. For a party formed as movement of
private sector workers, it is utterly inept for Labour to either conflate the
interests of owners with employees or retreat into its public sector comfort
zone.
If Labour loses the election but does so with an increased
share of the vote compared to 2015, there is hope. If it secures the active
backing of the pre-middle aged portion of the population, it can plausibly
claim to represent the future. But if it crashes catastrophically, the New
Labour old guard will ride, however unfairly, on a wave of vindication and
Yvette ‘work capability assessment’ Cooper or someone like her will become
leader. The robotization of British politics will then be complete. “Ever
tried. Ever failed. No matter,” said the playwright Samuel Beckett. “Fail
again. Fail better.”
