Last month the economist Jeffrey Sachs said something which should have sent shockwaves around the world. “I chaired a commission for The Lancet for two years on Covid,” Sachs told a conference in Madrid. “I’m pretty convinced it came out of US lab biotechnology, not out of nature; just to mention after two years of intensive work on this. So it’s a blunder, in my view, of biotech, not an accident or a natural spillover."
This is not the kind of claim that can be safely dismissed – as claims going against the orthodoxy invariably are – as a ‘conspiracy theory’. Sachs is a famous economist. Twice one of Time Magazine’s most influential people in the world, he was responsible, as an advisor to Boris Yeltsin, for imposing shock therapy on post-Communist Russia (coincidentally the 1990s saw life expectancy in Russia fall by the largest amount, outside of war or famine, in any nation in history). Since then he’s undergone something of a metamorphosis, endorsing Bernie Sanders in the 2020 American election.
The Lancet is a famous British-based peer-reviewed medical magazine, not noted for its articles on the Loch Ness monster, Big Foot sightings and the lost city of Atlantis.
The Sachs/Lancet combination is therefore not one that can be plausibly accused of spreading fake news in order to garner a few thousand likes on Twitter. But what Sachs had to say wasn’t greeted with the kind of peaked curiosity you might expect from the media. The UK right-wing press – Telegraph and Daily Mail – did register his comments, though noticeably without the level of glee that accompanied claims from the year before that China, alone, might be responsible for Covid. State media (the BBC) and the liberal press (The Guardian) were conspicuous by their silence. Likewise the left-wing, and generally pro-China, Morning Star.
‘This was teamwork’
If Sachs is too close to the Establishment to be branded a conspiracy theorist, claims he is merely a “Xi propagandist” (Xi Jinping is the President of China) don’t really stack up either. After all, what he is saying does not exonerate China. To do that, he’d have to parrot the Chinese government line – and that of many western scientists – that Covid definitely originated in the wild. Or echo Chinese media claims that the Covid-19 virus was cooked up at a US military base in Maryland. But he’s doing neither. He’s saying it’s very possible – not definite, no-one can know for sure without transparency by all parties – that SARS-COV-2 (Covid) was a deliberate creation of a US-Chinese scientific partnership and leaked out inadvertently as a result of a terrible mistake.
It’s a matter of public record that US government agencies funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology among other places. This was a result of a 2014 Federal ban on such research in the US because it was considered dangerous. There were, Sachs says, grant applications that wanted to manipulate coronavirus strains to make them more infectious to humans (the logic being that if you do so, vaccines are supposedly easier to formulate). The National Institutes of Health – the US government agency that doled out the funds – says that no such proposals were approved. But, retorts Sachs, it’s common knowledge in these fields that some research is always undertaken in advance of the securing of funding.
“If this came out of a lab, it was US biotechnology that made it possible,” asserts Sachs. “The US actually trained the people at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, they were engaged with them, they were part of the same grant proposals. This was teamwork.”
Two caveats should be made. One if Covid was released from a lab, it was a catastrophic error, not part of some dastardly plan to create a devastating new bioweapon. Two, there is no certainty. “We don’t know for sure, I should be absolutely clear,” Sachs cautions. “But there’s enough evidence that it should be looked into and it’s not being investigated, not in the United States, not anywhere. I think for real reasons that they don’t want to look underneath the rug too much.”
Oops
But what is clear is that, Jeffrey Sachs aside, there isn’t much of an appetite for truth here. Some people – US Republicans, Tony Blair etc. – were all for lifting up the rug when they thought China was the sole perpetrator. Certain Trumpists even wanted to go to war over it. But the enthusiasm on the Right for the unvarnished truth has waned the more the plot has thickened.
American Democrats and centrists and liberals of various hues are fervently attached to the zoonotic explanation for Covid because to depart from it puts science in the crosshairs when it belongs firmly on a pedestal. When the Chinese government isn’t agreeing with them for slightly different reasons, it’s urging the World Health Organisation to investigate the sudden closure of the US military base denounced as the harbinger of Covid.
But Covid as the bastard child of a joint US-China scientific project gone cataclysmically awry? That doesn’t have quite the same partisan appeal, not least because you can’t blame communism or the US military. Ironically, if it is true, the only possible scapegoats for a death toll of, conservatively, over six million and counting, are the signature forces of our age, globalisation and outsourcing. I mean who’d have thought they could have any downsides?
That’s the one certain ‘takeaway’ in the Sachs version of the lab leak theory. The world is a lot stranger than you thought. A new Cold War, even direct military conflict, is brewing between the USA and China. The most ‘globalist’ candidate to replace Johnson as UK PM, Rishi Sunak, promises to “face down China” as the biggest threat to world security. And yet here were these deadly enemies cooperating on extremely risky germ research. And that’s beyond dispute; they were cooperating even if at this point the Armageddon outcome is a matter of conjecture. I’m fairly sure that in the actual Cold War, even at the height of détente, the US didn’t farm out biomedical research to the Leningrad Medical Institute.
In all probability, even if some version of the lab leak theory is what happened, it will never become the accepted narrative. To concede that would be to invite a moral reckoning so seismic it would fatally damage the legitimacy of the world’s two superpowers and give a new fervour to the forces of ethno-nationalism and religion. I’d like to think the non-national, council democracy of the Kurds could step into the breach but I realise its libidinal reach is at present a lot smaller.
It will be interesting to see how the final, peer-reviewed report of Sachs’s Covid commission in The Lancet deals with the issue; whether it will be as outspoken as he has been. If it is, I expect it to be one of the most unwelcome items of news in history.
Addendum, 1 Nov 2022
Maybe as expected, the Commission report hedges its bets about the origins of Covid, saying it is “feasible” the virus leaked out as a result of a “research incident” but also that a “zoonotic” explanation – a natural spillover – is equally plausible. In the absence of independent investigation of US laboratories engaged in “manipulation of SARS-CoV-like viruses” or laboratory research in Wuhan, it is not possible to say with any certainty what happened. “Commissioners held diverse views about the relative probabilities of the two explanations, and both possibilities require further scientific investigation,” the report says.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/lancet-report-claiming-covid-could-132931783.html
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01585-9/fulltext
However, evidence for the synthetic origin of Covid-19 remains: https://twitter.com/mbalter/status/1583203103293071360
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