Echoes of the global financial crisis of 2007-9 are in the
air. Both the US Nasdaq and the tech-heavy South Korean stock market have
fallen heavily recently, prompted by threats by the US Federal Reserve to raise
interest rates. Back in February 2007, stocks in the US and Asia also
nose-dived, presaging ‘Debtonation Day’ in August of that year.
And the proximate cause of the credit crunch, which many
very knowledgeable people assured us could never happen, was an incremental
rise in interest rates.
But whether an almighty bubble is about to burst, as it has
threatened to many times before, there is one thing we in the West can be sure
of. We are living in a society defined by slow economic growth, which
qualitatively distinguishes it from economies in most of the second half of the
20th century.
Statistics can lie but not here because they are so stark. In
the decade to 2025, UK GDP grew by just 14%, an annual growth rate of just over
1 per cent. In the decade to 1965, growth was 37%, and economic growth per
capita (growth adjusted for population growth) in the last 10 years has
actually been negative.
The European Union has seen average
growth of 1.3% over the last 19 years and 1.1% in the Eurozone. This is a decline from nearly 5% in the
1960s, 2.1% from 1973-83, and 1.6% in the 1990s.
The US, the world’s largest economy, has performed slightly
better but
the trends are still unmistakable. In the 1950s and ‘60s, the growth rate
was above 4% before decreasing to around 3% in the 1970s and ‘80s. Over the
last ten years, the average has been below 2%.
These are not figures relative to other economies. Other
parts of the world, like China, have clearly been catching up over the last few
decades. But the West’s growth decline is palpable without comparisons to other
countries.
Nor, as an aside, is this what was meant to happen. Thatcher
and Reagan’s ‘free market’ economic medicine was sold on the basis on reviving
the economy, ushering in an era of prosperity. But as these supply-side
prescriptions have bedded down into conventional wisdom, they have had
precisely the opposite effect.
And slow growth has
definite consequences. One of these is that ‘democratic’ government (to the
extent that our government can ever really be called democratic’) gets absorbed
by private economic power. Back in the 1930s, US President Franklin Roosevelt
called this “the essence of Fascism”.
I was reading recently a book about “deaths of despair” in
the US. These are deaths by suicide, drug overdose, or alcoholism, which the
authors contend have shot up among white people without a degree since the turn
of the century. There are many possible reasons, which I can’t go into here,
but one factor is slowing economic growth.
“What may seem like small differences in growth rates have
effects over long periods of time”, the authors, Anne Case and Angus Deaton
(not that one), say.
One of these effects is increasingly bitter fights over
distribution. “With lower growth, there is more pressure to shut out less
successful groups”, they write. This “poisons
politics”.
Such a poisoning can be seen in British politics in the
demonisation of immigrants and refugees. Or in the intense concentration on
attacking the very limited, and very conditional, benefits of sick and disabled
people; an issue which simply didn’t exist prior to the 1990s, in an era marked
by higher economic growth. The ‘problem’ of excessive benefits paid to
vulnerable people has become an obsession of British politics in the age of
austerity.
Case and Deaton also say that with slower growth, the
“positive-sum game of innovation” gets usurped by “Rent-seeking”. This turns
into a “vicious circle that impoverishes everyone”.
Rent-seeking does not just mean seeking housing rents from
tenants, but the appropriation by powerful corporations of the existing income
of government and society, rather than attempting to create new sources of
wealth.
Based on these insights, the basic features of slow growth
society, in Britain and elsewhere, can be identified.
In a slow growth society, living standards decline or
stagnate
Wage rates in the US have been stagnating for half a
century. In Britain, the process has been more telescoped but no less
pronounced. According to the Resolution Foundation, if wages had continued to
grow as they had been before the 2008 financial crisis, they would be 37%
higher than they actually are.
This has taken place in the context of a decline in real GDP
– GDP that takes account of a rise in population. “It is
extremely difficult for living standards to rise in such circumstances”
says socialist economist Michael Burke. Likewise, Case and Deaton say that in
an economy growing at 2.5%, living standards double in 28 years but at 1.5% it
takes 47 years.
Of course, in a strongly growing economy, there is no
guarantee that income will be shared out. While global GDP has increased by 65%
since 1990, for example, the number of people living on less than $5 a day has
increased by 370 million.
But in a stagnant economy, there is even less chance of
living standards increasing. Why should this be so? Partly this is because
living standards are dependent on labour productivity which is in turn
dependent on business investment. And both of these metrics have been falling
over the last few decades. As Case and Deaton say, “investment is a
prerequisite for growth, it embodies the latest knowledge and techniques and it
raises productivity.”
In the absence of investment, business tends to concentrate
on low-cost labour, possibly overseas, or cheap AI transformations. Neither of
which raise living standards.
There is easy money to be made – for some people
But in these circumstances, capital is irresistibly
attracted to something else – rent-seeking. This involves making money, not
from consumer spending on new products, but from government revenues or
unavoidable spending by consumers (on housing or heating costs, for example).
Something that is already there and merely has to be tapped or exploited. The
deal negotiated by pharmaceutical companies with the Starmer government to
double NHS spending on new drugs over the next decade – the cost of which has
been variously placed at £64
billion or £44.7
billion, causing hundreds of thousands of excess deaths – is a prime
example of rent-seeking.
The “VIP Lane” created by ‘Boris’ Johnson’s Conservative
government, to enable firms with political connections to the Tories to get PPE
contracts under Covid, is another.
More generally, Britain’s ‘privatised’ utilities – in truth
not genuinely privatised but contracted out – are a haven of rent-seeking. They
provide both a monopoly ensured by the government and a captive market of
consumers who have no choice but to buy the ‘product’ being sold.
Unsurprisingly, charges have increased way beyond the rate of inflation.
But rent-seeking can occur in purely private sector
settings. When a private equity consortium buys a company, in the process
loading it down with debt, and then prepares it for re-sale by asset stripping
it and increasing the charges to customers, that is rent-seeking. It is destructive
to the viability of the firms that are acquired, but the ‘investors’
acquire massive profits.
These processes come to dominate entire economies. The
Tories’ PPE scandal has been described as “the
rule of contemporary British capitalism, rather than the exception”, while
a recent report by UCL professor Mariana Mazzucato has characterised the
European economy as a “capitalism
of rent”, where income is captured not by producing anything but by
achieving market power, and owning assets and charging for access to them.
It is no accident that this degradation has occurred in an
era of slow GDP growth, where the levying of rent becomes a far more lucrative
and risk-free strategy than actually creating anything.
In a slow growth economy, everything costs more – for a
reason
As the Mazzucato report asserts, the crux of corporate
strategies is the achievement of market power, which enables income to flow
from charging people or other companies to access what you possess. This brings
into focus another aspect of slow growth economies – an increase in price mark-ups.
A price mark-up is overcharging for products. According to
orthodox economic theory, the price of goods is determined by the cost of the
labour and raw materials it takes to produce them, plus a ‘normal’ rate of
profit (as we are talking about a profit-based system).
But under a regime of price mark-ups, this normal level of
profit becomes ever more elastic. According to one recent book on the
cost-of-living crisis, the largest UK firms have massively raised their
mark-ups over the last two decades, from 58% in
2002 to 82% in 2020.
This ability to profiteer, and impose what is essentially a
private tax on consumers, is intimately related to size and market power.
Research by the anti-monopoly group The Balanced Economy Project,
reveals that for the world’s top 20 companies, in the five years to 2022, the
average mark-up rose to around 50%. For the bottom half of firms (around
34,000 companies were studied), however, the average mark-up was just 25%.
And for some sectors of the economy – pharma or Big Tech for
example – mark-ups can be huge, many hundreds of per cent.
The economist Isabella Weber coined the term “sellers’
inflation”, to account for the inflation that took hold after Covid-19 that,
she said, was based on “the
ability of firms with market power to hike prices”. In truth this process
was happening before the Covid epidemic, but as inflation was so low few
noticed.
A decade ago, the Economist magazine found that
corporations in the US were raking in “exceptional
profits” of $300 billion a year, equivalent to a third of taxed operating
profits. Some sectors of the US economy were seeing price rises of double the
rate of inflation. This, at a time when inflation was negligible (indeed there
was a pervasive fear of deflation). Of course, GDP growth was tiny as well,
lower than it had been since before World War Two.
What is interesting is that these price mark-ups were
occurring in the most concentrated parts of the American economy. In the same
article, the Economist analysed 900 sectors of the US economy and found
that 2/3rds had become more concentrated between 1997 and 2012.
Not only do high mark-ups contribute high profits and high
market value, they are enabled by it. When it comes to charging much more for
your products than it takes to produce them, the bigger you are the better.
Which leads to another insight.
Bigness is a curse
In the late 1930s, Franklin Roosevelt called
attention to a “concentration of private power without equal in history”.
0.1% of corporations in America, he told the US Congress in
1938, owned 52% of the assets of all of them. Now
that figure has risen to 90%.
Roosevelt said something else in his speech, delivered in
the midst of the Great Depression. That the history of modern times “proves
that in times of depression concentration of business speeds up. Bigger
business then has a larger opportunity to grow still bigger at the expense of
smaller competitors who are weakened by financial adversity.”
We are undoubtedly now faced with, and have been for some
time, conditions of “financial adversity”.
A slow growth economy means generalized financial adversity —
not just among people struggling to make ends meet but among small businesses
who are dependent on consumer spending or may be the suppliers of corporate
behemoths like Amazon.
One group, though, palpably not suffering from financial
adversity are large corporations. Corporate
profits are at all-time highs, eclipsing previous all-time highs achieved a
few months before.
And the large are getting larger. According to Goldman
Sachs, “despite uncertainty in the global economy” mergers and acquisitions –
which by definition involve the creation of ever larger economic and financial
entities – could hit $3.8 trillion in 2026, surpassing the previous peak in the
Covid-year of 2021.
Received wisdom has it that the threat of Fascism is
nurtured by conditions of inequality, poverty, anxiety, and a lack of social
mobility. Conditions that will call out for scapegoats to be found which
temporarily soothe the anxiety.
But if we listen
to Roosevelt who was speaking when Nazism was approaching its zenith, that
isn’t the whole story. Fascism also has an economic corollary, what he called
“a cluster of private collectivisms” … “masking itself as a system of free
enterprise” that seeks to control democratic government.
Fascism doesn’t just base itself on the exploitation of
popular discontent among its mass base. It also has an elite element, which
finds nourishment, as it did in the 1930s, in the conditions of a slow growth
society.
What Roosevelt termed the “essence of Fascism” is what I
want to consider in the second half of this article.